Investment decision analysis of international megaprojects based on cognitive linguistic cloud models
Abstract
The investment decision analysis of international megaprojects is a major area of interest. The choice of interna
tional megaprojects usually depends on the multi-discipline knowledge from experts. Besides, experts may not be able to provide accurate or crisp evaluations such as deterministic numbers on each criterion because of the complexity of the decision problem. In this case, natural evaluation language, either single linguistic variable or multiple linguistic variables, is a good expression tool for experts to sharing their opinions freely and flexibly. To this end, this paper introduces a cognitive linguistic cloud model for the investment decision analysis of international megaprojects as a decision support system and provides a survey of the cloud model. Afterwards, the technique to tackle multi-granularity of cognitive linguistic information is proposed to capture personalized semantics. In addition, operators of the cognitive linguistic model are proposed to aggregate natural language. The proposed approach has the advantages of more accurate utilization of experts’ knowledge, reducing uncertainties, and more effective operations of cognitive clouds for decision analysis in comparing with the state of the art. Finally, a case study about the investment of international megaprojects is given to show the flexibility and understandability of the cognitive linguistic model.
Keyword : megaproject investment, decision analysis, cognitive linguistic cloud model, multi-granular information, personalized semantics
How to Cite
Mi, X., Liao, H., & Zeng, X.-J. (2020). Investment decision analysis of international megaprojects based on cognitive linguistic cloud models. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 24(6), 414-427. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2020.13669
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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https://doi.org/10.1080/00207721.2017.1367433
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Wang, J. Q., Lu, P., Zhang, H. Y., & Chen, X. H. (2014). Method of multi-criteria group decision-making based on cloud ag- gregation operators with linguistic information. Information Sciences, 274, 177−191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2014.02.130
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Wu, X. L., & Liao, H. C. (2019). A consensus-based probabilistic linguistic gained and lost dominance score method. European Journal of Operational Research, 272(3), 1017−1027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.07.044
Wu, Y. N., Chen, K. F., Zeng, B. X., Yang, M., Li, L. W. Y., & Zhang, H. B. (2017). A cloud decision framework in pure 2-tuple linguistic setting and its application for low-speed wind farm site selection. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142(4), 2154−2165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.067
Yu, D. J., Xu, Z. S., & Wang, W. R. (2018). Bibliometric analy- sis of fuzzy theory research in China: a 30-year perspective. Knowledge-Based Systems, 141, 188−199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2017.11.018
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Zeng, S. X., Ma, H. Y., Lin, H., Zeng, R. C., & Tam, V. W. Y. (2015). Social responsibility of major infrastructure projects in China. International Journal of Project Management, 33(3), 537−548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.07.007
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Brookes, N. J., & Locatelli, G. (2015). Power plants as megapro- jects: using empirics to shape policy, planning, and construc- tion management. Utilities Policy, 36, 57−66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2015.09.005
Chang, T. C., & Wang, H. (2016). A self-testing cloud model for multi-criteria group decision making. Engineering Computations, 33(6), 1767−1783. https://doi.org/10.1108/EC-08-2015-0258
Chapman, R. J. (2016). A framework for examining the dimen- sions and characteristics of complexity inherent within rail megaprojects. International Journal of Project Management, 34(6), 937−956.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.05.001
Flyvbjerg, B. (2011). Over budget, over time, over and over again: managing major projects. In The Oxford handbook of project management (pp. 321−344). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199563142.003.0014
Flyvbjerg, B. (2014). What you should know about megaprojects and why: an overview. Project Management Journal, 45(2), 6−19. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409
Flyvbjerg, B. (2017). The Oxford handbook of megaproject management. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198732242.001.0001
Gao, J. W., & Yi, R. (2017). Cloud generalized power ordered weighted average operator and its application to linguistic group decision-making. Symmetry, 9(8), 156. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym9080156
Giezen, M., Salet, W., & Bertolini, L. (2015). Adding value to the decision-making process of mega projects: fostering strategic ambiguity, redundancy, and resilience. Transport Policy, 44, 169−178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.08.006
He, Q. H., Luo, L., Hu, Y., & Chan, A. P. C. (2015). Measuring the complexity of mega construction projects in China – a fuzzy analytic network process analysis. International Journal of Project Management, 33(3), 549−563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.07.009
Hu, Y., Chan, A. P. C., Le, Y., & Xu, Y. L. (2016). Developing a pro- gram organization performance index for delivering construc- tion megaprojects in China: fuzzy synthetic evaluation analy- sis. Journal of Management in Engineering, 32(4), 05016007. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000432
Joshi, D. K., & Kumar, S. (2018). Trapezium cloud TOPSIS meth- od with interval-valued intuitionistic hesitant fuzzy linguistic information. Granular Computing, 3(2), 139−152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41066-017-0062-5
Keith, J. A., & Ahner, D. K. (2020). A survey of decision mak- ing and optimization under uncertainty. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03431-8
Lehtinen, J., Peltokorpi, A., & Artto, K. (2019). Megaprojects as organizational platforms and technology platforms for value creation. International Journal of Project Management, 37(1), 43−58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2018.10.001
Li, C. B., Qi, Z. Q., & Feng, X. (2014). A multi-risks group evalu- ation method for the informatization project under linguistic environment. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 26(3), 1581−1592. https://doi.org/10.3233/IFS-131095
Li, D. Y., & Du, Y. (2007). Artificial intelligence with uncertainty. Chapman & Hall CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781584889991
Li, D. Y., Han, J. W., Shi, X. M., & Chan, M. C. (1998). Knowledge representation and discovery based on linguistic atoms. Knowledge-Based Systems, 10, 431−440. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0950-7051(98)00038-0
Li, D. Y., Liu, C. Y., & Gan, W. Y. (2009). A new cognitive model: cloud model. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 24, 357−375. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20340
Liang, R. X., & Wang, J. Q. (2019). A linguistic intuitionistic cloud decision support model with sentiment analysis for product selection in E-commerce. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 21(3), 963−977. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-019-00606-0
Liao, H. C., Xu, Z. S., Herrera-Viedma, E., & Herrera, F. (2018). Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set and its application in deci- sion making: a state-of-the-art survey. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 20(7), 2084−2110. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-018-0561-9
Lin, H., Zeng, S. X., Ma, H. Y., Zeng, R. C., & Tam, V. W. Y. (2017). An indicator system for evaluating megaproject social responsibility. International Journal of Project Management, 35(7), 1415−1426.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.04.009
Liu, P. D., & Liu, X. (2017). Multi-attribute group decision-mak- ing method based on cloud distance operators with linguis- tic information. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 19, 1011–1024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-016-0279-5
Liu, Y. N., Wang, X. K., Wang, J. Q., Li, L., & Cheng, P. F. (2020). Cloud model-based PROMETHEE method under 2D uncer- tain linguistic environment. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Sys- tems, 38(4), 4869−4887. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-191546
Ma, H. Y., Zeng, S. X., Lin, H., Chen, H. Q., & Shi, J. J. (2017). The societal governance of megaproject social responsi- bility. International Journal of Project Management, 35(7), 1365−1377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.01.012
Osei-Kyei, R., Chan, A. P. C., Javed, A. A., & Ameyaw, E. E. (2017). Critical success criteria for public-private partnership projects: international experts’ opinion. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(1), 87−100. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1246388
Peng, B., Zhou, J. M., & Peng, D. H. (2017). Cloud model based approach to group decision making with uncertain pure lin- guistic information. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 32(3), 1959−1968. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-161473
Peng, H. G., & Wang, J. Q. (2017). Cloud decision model for selecting sustainable energy crop based on linguistic intui- tionistic information. International Journal of Systems Science, 48(15), 3316−3333.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00207721.2017.1367433
Peng, H. G., & Wang, J. Q. (2018). A multicriteria group decision- making method based on the normal cloud model with Za- deh’s Z-numbers. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 28(6), 3246−3260. https://doi.org/10.1109/TFUZZ.2018.2816909
Peng, H. G., Zhang, H. Y., & Wang, J. Q. (2018). Cloud decision support model for selecting hotels on TripAdvisor.com with probabilistic linguistic information. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 68, 124−138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2017.10.001
Peng, H. G., Zhang, H. Y., Wang, J. Q., & Li, L. (2019). An uncer- tain Z-number multicriteria group decision-making method with cloud models. Information Sciences, 501, 136−154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2019.05.090
Priemus, H., Flyvbjerg, B., & Wee, B. B. (2008). Decision-making on mega-projects: cost-benefit analysis, planning and innova- tion. Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781848440173
Qin, K., Xu, K., Liu, F. L., & Li, D. Y. (2011). Image segmentation based on histogram analysis utilizing the cloud model. Com- puters & Mathematics with Applications, 62(7), 2824−2833. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.camwa.2011.07.048
Rostamzadeh, R., Ismail, K., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2014). Multi criteria decision making for assisting business angels in in- vestments. Technological and Economic Development of Econ- omy, 20(4), 696−720.
https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.984364
Turskis, Z., Morkunaite, Z., & Kutut, V. (2017). A hybrid multi- ple criteria evaluation method of ranking of cultural heritage structures for renovation projects. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 318−329. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2017.1325782
Wang, D., Liu, D. F., Ding, H., Singh, V. P., Wang, Y. K., Zeng, X. K., Wu, J. C., & Wang, L. C. (2016). A cloud model- based approach for water quality assessment. Environmental Research, 148, 24−35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2016.03.005
Wang, J. Q., Lu, P., Zhang, H. Y., & Chen, X. H. (2014). Method of multi-criteria group decision-making based on cloud ag- gregation operators with linguistic information. Information Sciences, 274, 177−191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2014.02.130
Wang, J. Q., Wang, P., Wang, J., Zhang, H. Y., & Chen, X. H. (2015b). Atanassov’s interval-valued intuitionistic linguistic multicriteria group decision-making method based on the trapezium cloud model. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 23(3), 542−554.
https://doi.org/10.1109/TFUZZ.2014.2317500
Wang, J. Q., Peng, J. J., Zhang, H. Y., Liu, Z. T., & Chen, X. H. (2015a). An uncertain linguistic multi-criteria group deci- sion-making method based on a cloud model. Group Decision and Negotiation, 24(1), 171−192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-014-9385-7
Wang, M. X., & Wang, J. Q. (2018). New online recommendation approach based on unbalanced linguistic label with integrated cloud. Kybernetes, 47(7), 1325−1347. https://doi.org/10.1109/TFUZZ.2018.2822242
Woetzel, J., Garemo, N., Mischke, J., Hjerpe, M., & Palter, R. (2016). Bridging global infrastructure gaps. McKinsey Global Institute.
Wu, T., & Seidmann, A. (2018). Can irrelevant benchmark in- formation help when making business decisions under uncer- tainty? An empirical investigation of the newsvendor game. Decision Support Systems, 107, 40−51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2017.12.014
Wu, X. L., & Liao, H. C. (2019). A consensus-based probabilistic linguistic gained and lost dominance score method. European Journal of Operational Research, 272(3), 1017−1027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.07.044
Wu, Y. N., Chen, K. F., Zeng, B. X., Yang, M., Li, L. W. Y., & Zhang, H. B. (2017). A cloud decision framework in pure 2-tuple linguistic setting and its application for low-speed wind farm site selection. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142(4), 2154−2165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.067
Yu, D. J., Xu, Z. S., & Wang, W. R. (2018). Bibliometric analy- sis of fuzzy theory research in China: a 30-year perspective. Knowledge-Based Systems, 141, 188−199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2017.11.018
Yu, D. J., Xu, Z. S., & Wang, W. R. (2019). A bibliometric analy- sis of Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making (2002–2017). Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 18, 371−397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-018-9301-8
Yu, D. J., Li, D. F., Merigo, J. M., & Fang, L. C. (2016). Mapping development of linguistic decision making studies. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 30, 2727−2736. https://doi.org/10.3233/IFS-152026
Yu, W. Y., Zhang, Z., & Zhong, Q. Y. (2020). Consensus reach- ing for MAGDM with multi-granular hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets: a minimum adjustment-based approach. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03432-7
Zeng, S. X., Ma, H. Y., Lin, H., Zeng, R. C., & Tam, V. W. Y. (2015). Social responsibility of major infrastructure projects in China. International Journal of Project Management, 33(3), 537−548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.07.007
Zhang, H. Y, Ji, P., Wang, J. Q., Chen, X. H. (2016). A neutro- sophic normal cloud and its application in decision-making. Cognitive Computation, 8, 649–669. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12559-016-9394-8
Zhang, Y., Wei, H.-H., Zhao, D., Han, Y. L., & Chen, J. Y. (2020). Understanding innovation diffusion and adoption strategies in megaproject networks through a fuzzy system dynamic model. Frontiers of Engineering Management. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42524-019-0082-8
Zhou, J., Liu, L. F., Sun, L. J., & Xiao, F. (2019). A multi-criteria decision-making method for hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set based on the cloud model and evidence theory. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 36(2), 1797−1808. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-18051