Land assets, urban investment bonds, and local governments' debt risk, China
Abstract
As the collateral for the issuance of urban investment bonds (UIBs), land leasing revenue is the fund that is used to repay the debt with large-scale land hoarding and increasing land price due to China’s rapid urbanization. This paper employs the fixed effect model and panel data from 2006 to 2015 to analyze the influence of land hoarding and price on debt scale and risk of local governments. Results reveal that both land hoarding scale and land price exhibit a positive influence on the UIBs’ scale and risk. However, regional differences are evident. In the Eastern region, the correlation between land asset and UIBs can be testified.
First published online 19 November 2020
Keyword : land assets, debt risk, land price, urban investment bonds, local government, China
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00606.x
Bao, H. J., & Peng, Y. (2016). Effect of land expropriation on land-lost farmers’ entrepreneurial action: a case study of Zhejiang Province. Habitat International, 53, 342–349.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.12.008
Bellot, N. J., Selva, M. L. M., & Menéndez, L. G. (2017). Determinants of sub-central European government debt. The Spanish Review of Financial Economics, 15(2), 52–62.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.srfe.2017.04.001
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2008). Urbanization and the wealth of nations. Science, 319(5864), 772–775.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153057
Cai, Z. Y., Liu, Z. X., Zuo, S. M., & Cao, S. X. (2019). Finding a peaceful road to urbanization in China. Land Use Policy, 83, 560–563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.02.042
Cao, G., Feng, C., & Tao, R. (2008). Local ‘land finance’ in China’s urban expansion: challenges and solutions. China & World Economy, 16(2), 19–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00104.x
Cao, S., Lv, Y., Zheng, H., & Wang, X. (2014). Challenges facing China’s unbalanced urbanization strategy. Land Use Policy, 39, 412–415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.12.004
Chen, A. (2008). The 1994 tax reform and its impact on China’s rural fiscal structure. Modern China, 34(3), 303–343.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0097700408315987
Chen, B. J., & Liu, Y. P. (2015). Local government debt risk early warning algorithm based on fuzzy analysis. In 2015 Sixth International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Engineering Applications (pp. 494–499). IEEE.
https://doi.org/10.1109/ISDEA.2015.129
Cheng, S., Xie, H. L., Jiang, J. F., & Chen, Q. R. (2018). Is urban land development driven by economic development or fiscal revenue stimuli in China? Land Use Policy, 77, 107–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.031
Cooray, A., Dzhumashev, R., & Schneider, F. (2017). How does corruption affect public debt? An empirical analysis. World Development, 90, 115–127.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.020
Du, J., & Peiser, R. B. (2014). Land supply, pricing and local governments’ land hoarding in China. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 48, 180–189.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.07.002
Fan, G., & Lv, Y. (2012). Fiscal prudence and growth sustainability: an analysis of China’s public debts. Asian Economic Policy Review, 7(2), 202–220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2012.01234.x
Faulk, D., & Killian, L. (2016). Special districts and local government debt: an analysis of “Old Northwest Territory” states. Public Budgeting & Finance, 37(1), 112–134.
https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12122
Feng, W. L., Liu, Y. S., & Qu, L. L. (2019). Effect of land-centered urbanization on rural development: a regional analysis in China. Land Use Policy, 87, 104072.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104072
Firman, T. (2000). Rural to urban land conversion in Indonesia during boom and bust periods. Land Use Policy, 17(1), 13–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-8377(99)00037-X
Galiński, P. (2016). Determinants of debt limits in local governments: case of Poland. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, 376–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.554
Gao, H. N. (2019). Public land leasing, public productive spending and economic growth in Chinese cities. Land Use Policy, 88, 104076. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104076
Geng, B., Zhang, X., Liang, Y., Bao, H., & Skitmore, M. (2018). Sustainable land finance in a new urbanization context: theoretical connotations, empirical tests and policy recommendations. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 128, 336–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.11.013
Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau, T. G. (2008). Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets? Journal of Housing Economics, 17(2), 117–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.12.001
Harvey, D. (1978). The urban process under capitalism: a framework for analysis. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2(1–4), 101–131. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.1978.tb00738.x
Ho, S., & Lin, G. (2003). Emerging land markets in rural and urban China: policies and practices. China Quarterly, 175,
681–707. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741003000407
Hu, A. G. (1998). An arduous and difficult institutional innovation: a preliminary assessment of the reform in the taxsharing system. The Chinese Economy, 31(4), 30–96.
https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475310430
Hu, F., & Qian, J. (2017). Land-based finance, fiscal autonomy and land supply for affordable housing in urban China: a prefecture-level analysis. Land Use Policy, 69, 454–460.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.09.050
Huang, D., & Chan, R. C. (2018). On ‘Land Finance’ in urban China: theory and practice. Habitat International, 75, 96–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.03.002
Hyman, G., & Markowski, S. (1980). Speculation and inflation in the market for house-building land in England and Wales. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 12(10), 1119–1130. https://doi.org/10.1068/a121119
Lin, G. C. S., & Yi, F. (2011). Urbanization of capital or capitalization on urban land? Land development and local public finance in urbanizing China. Urban Geography, 32(1), 50–79. https://doi.org/10.2747/0272-3638.32.1.50
Liu, C., Moldogaziev, T. T., & Mikesell, J. L. (2017). Corruption and state and local government debt expansion. Public Administration Review, 77(5), 681–690.
https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12711
Liu, T., Cao, G. Z., Yan, Y., & Raymond, Y. W. (2016). Urban land marketization in China: central policy, local initiative, and market mechanism. Land Use Policy, 57, 265–276.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.06.001
Liu, Y., Fan, P., Yue, W., & Song, Y. (2018). Impacts of land finance on urban sprawl in China: the case of Chongqing. Land Use Policy, 72, 420–432.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.01.004
Liu, Y. Z., & Zhao, J. M. (2011). Intergovernmental fiscal transfers and local tax efforts: evidence from provinces in China. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 14(4), 295–300.
https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2011.591175
Long, H. L., Li, Y. R., Liu, Y. S., Woods, M., & Zou, J. (2012). Accelerated restructuring in rural China fueled by’ increasing vs. decreasing balance’ land-use policy for dealing with hollowed villages. Land Use Policy, 29(1), 11–22.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.04.003
Lu, Y., & Sun, T. (2013). Local government financing platforms in China: A fortune or misfortune? IMF Working Papers, 13(243), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475599671.001
Ma, J. (2013). Hidden fiscal risks in local China. Australian Journal of Public Administration, 72(3), 278–292. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8500.12028
Neutze, M. (1970). The price of land for urban development. The Economic Record, 46(3), 313–328. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1970.tb02492.x
Pan, F., Zhang, F., & Zhu, S. (2017). Developing by borrowing? Inter-jurisdictional competition, land finance and local debt accumulation in China. Urban Studies, 54(4), 897–916. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015624838
Peng, X. (2011). China’s demographic history and future challenges. Science, 333(6042), 581–587.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1209396
Rancich, M. T. (1970). Land value changes in an area undergoing urbanization. Land Economics, 46(1), 32–40.
https://doi.org/10.2307/3145421
Sun, X. L., & Zhou, F. Z. (2014). Land finance and the tax-sharing system: an empirical interpretation. Social Sciences in China, 35(3), 47–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/02529203.2014.927094
Tanya, T., Phyllis, L. L. M., & Hung, K. (2017). Tax collector or tax avoider? An investigation of intergovernmental agency conflicts. The Accounting Review, 92(2), 247–270.
https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-51526
Tewfik, M. (1989). Urban land in Jordan: issues and policies.
Cities, 6(2), 119–135.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0264-2751(89)90065-6
Tsui, K. Y. (2011). China’s infrastructure investment boom and local debt crisis. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 52(5), 686–711. https://doi.org/10.2747/1539-7216.52.5.686
Tu, L. H., & Padovani, E. (2018). A research on the debt sustainability of China’s major city governments in post-land finance era. Sustainability, 10(5), 1606. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051606
Veiga, L. G., & Veiga, F. J. (2014). Determinants of Portuguese local governments’ indebtedness. NIPE Working Paper, 16, 10–20.
Wang, J., Lin, Y. F., Glendinning, A., & Xu, Y. Q. (2018). Landuse changes and land policies evolution in China’s urbanization processes. Land Use Policy, 75, 375–387.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.04.011
Wang, W., & Ye, F. (2016). The political economy of land finance in China. Public Budgeting & Finance, 36(2), 91–110. https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12086
Wang, Y., & Hui, E. C. (2017). Are local governments maximizing land revenue? Evidence from China. China Economic Review, 43, 196–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.02.005
Wen, H., Chu, L., Zhang, J., & Xiao, Y. (2018). Competitive intensity, developer expectation, and land price: evidence from Hangzhou, China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 144(4), 04018040. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000490
Wong, C. P. W. (2000). Central-local relations revisited: the 1994 tax sharing reform and public expenditure management in China, mimeo World Bank Office. China Perspectives, 31, 52–63.
Wu, G. L., Feng, Q., & Li, P. (2015a). Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China? China Economic Review, 35, 183–196.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2014.08.007
Wu, Q., Li, Y. L., & Yan, S. Q. (2015b). The incentives of China’s urban land finance. Land Use Policy, 42, 432–442.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.015
Wu, Y., Li, X., & Lin, G. (2016a). Reproducing the city of the spectacle: mega-events, local debts, and infrastructure-led urbanization in China. Cities, 53, 51–60.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.01.004
Wu, Y. Z., Luo, J. J., & Zhang, X. L., Skitmore, M. (2016b). Urban growth dilemmas and solutions in China: looking forward to 2030. Habitat International, 56, 42–51.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.04.004
Wu, Y. Z., Mo, Z. B., & Peng, Y. (2017). Renewal of land-use term for urbanization in China: sword of Damocles or Noah’s Ark? Land Use Policy, 65, 238–248.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.04.018
Xu, N. N. (2019). What gave rise to China’s land finance? Land Use Policy, 87, 1–12.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.05.034
Zhang, J., Fan, J., & Mo, J. (2017a). Government the intervention, land market, and the urban development: evidence from Chinese cities. Economic Inquiry, 55(1), 115–136. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12353
Zhang, J., Zhang, D., Huang, L., Wen, H., Zhao, G., & Zhan, D. (2019a). Spatial distribution and influential factors of industrial land productivity in China’s rapid urbanization. Journal of Cleaner Production, 234, 1287–1295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.287
Zhang, J., Zhang, D., Zhao, G., Zeng, H., & Wen, H. (2019b). Land supply and urbanization strategy in the Yangtze River Delta region, China. Growth and Change, 50, 1338–1355. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12331
Zhang, X., Lin, Y., Wu, Y., & Skitmore, M. (2017b). Industrial land price between China’s Pearl River Delta and Southeast Asian regions: competition or coopetition? Land Use Policy, 61, 575–586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.12.011
Zheng, H., Wang, X., & Cao, S. (2014). The land finance model jeopardizes China’s sustainable development. Habitat International, 44, 130–136.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.05.008