Share:


The cost performance and causes of overruns in infrastructure development projects in Asia

    Jelena M. Andrić Affiliation
    ; Abdul-Majeed Mahamadu Affiliation
    ; Jiayuan Wang Affiliation
    ; Patrick X. W. Zou Affiliation
    ; Ruoyu Zhong Affiliation

Abstract

Infrastructure plays a major role in the economic development of countries, especially in Asia which has experienced tremendous growth in recent years. The procurement of infrastructure continues to be characterized by cost overruns resulting in significant academic interest and theoretical propositions on the influential factors. This study contributes to this issue through adoption of pragmatic research methodology involving deterministic statistical analysis of real project data from reports as well as a qualitative analysis of these reports to unearth underlying issues from a thematic analysis. Furthermore, the study design takes a multi-country view towards establishing the role of contextual and geographical influences on cost overrun. An evaluation of 102 major infrastructure projects was performed covering railways, roadways and energy sectors in different regions in Asia. Findings reveal that differences in the propensity for cost overrun are mostly dependent on a type of infrastructure with rail projects being the most likely to overrun budget. Theoretically, propositions on the influence of project contextual factors are tested highlighting the influence of project size, project type, geographical locations, and the length of implementation period of a project as well as factors related to political, economic, strategic, and competence in infrastructure delivery which vary across countries.

Keyword : infrastructure projects, cost overruns, project type, geographical location, project size, implementation period, Asia

How to Cite
Andrić, J. M., Mahamadu, A.-M., Wang, J., Zou, P. X. W., & Zhong, R. (2019). The cost performance and causes of overruns in infrastructure development projects in Asia. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 25(3), 203-214. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2019.8646
Published in Issue
Mar 1, 2019
Abstract Views
3763
PDF Downloads
2561
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Adu, P. (2015). When to utilize manual coding or software-aided coding such as NVivo. Retrieved from https://www.slideshare.net/kontorphilip/qualitative-data-analysis-when-to-utilize-manual-coding-or-softwareaided-coding-such-as-nvivo-56347603

Ahsan, K., & Gunawan, I. (2010). Analysis of cost and schedule performance of international development projects. International Journal of Project Management, 28(1), 68-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2009.03.005

ADB. (2019). Asian Development Bank. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/

Cantarelli, C. C., Molin, E. J., van Wee, B., & Flyvbjerg, B. (2012a). Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases. Transport Policy, 22, 49-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.04.001

Cantarelli, C. C., van Wee, B., Molin, E. J., & Flyvbjerg, B. (2012b). Different cost performance: different determinants? The case of cost overruns in Dutch transport infrastructure projects. Transport Policy, 22, 88-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.04.002

Cantarelli, C., Flyvbjerg, B., & Buhl, S. L. (2012c). Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide. Journal of Transport Geography, 24, 324-331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.03.014

Cantarelli, C. C., Flybjerg, B., Molin, E. J., & van Wee, B. (2013). Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, 10(1), 5-18.

Ellis, Jr. R. D., Pyeon, J. H., Herbsman, Z. J., Minchin, E., & Molenaar, K. (2007). Evaluation of alternative contracting techniques on FDOT construction projects (Final Report). Florida Department of Transportation.

El-Sayegh, S. M., & Mansour, M. H. (2015). Risk assessment and allocation in highway construction projects in the UAE. Journal of Management in Engineering, 31(6), 04015004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000365

Flyvbjerg, B., Skamris Holm, M. S., & Buhl, S. (2002). Underestimating costs in public works projects: Error or lie? Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 279-295. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360208976273

Flyvbjerg, B., Skamris Holm, M. K., & Buhl, S. L. (2003a). How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects? Transport Reviews, 23(1), 71-88. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640309904

Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N., & Rothengatter, W. (2003b). Megaprojects and risk: An anatomy of ambition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107050891

Flyvbjerg, B., Skamris Holm, M. K., & Buhl, S. L. (2004). What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects? Transport Reviews, 24(1), 3-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144164032000080494a

Flyvbjerg, B., Ansar, A., Budzier, A., Buhl, S., Cantarelli, C., Garbuio, M., Glenting, C., Skamris Holm, M., Lovallo, D., Lunn, D., Molin, E., Rønnest, A., Stewart, A., & van Wee, B. (2018). Five things you should know about cost overrun. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 118, 174-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.07.013

Huo, T., Ren, H., Cai, W., Shen, G. Q., Liu, B., Zhu, M., & Wu, H. (2018). Measurement and dependence analysis of cost overruns in megatransport infrastructure projects: Case study in Hong Kong. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(3), 05018001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001444

Lee, J. K. (2008). Cost overrun and cause in Korean social overhead capital projects: Roads, rails, airports, and ports. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 134(2), 59-62. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2008)134:2(59)

Love, P. E., Sing, C. P., Wang, X., Irani, Z., & Thwala, D. W. (2014). Overruns in transportation infrastructure projects. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 10(2), 141-159. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2012.715173

Love, P. E., Zhou, J., Edwards, D. J., Irani, Z., & Sing, C. P. (2017). Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 99, 14-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.02.008

Makovšek, D., Tominc, P., & Logožar, K. (2012). A cost performance analysis of transport infrastructure construction in Slovenia. Transportation, 39(1), 197-214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-011-9319-z

Merrow, E. W. (2011). Industrial megaprojects: concepts, strategies, and practices for success (Vol. 8). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

Odeck, J. (2004). Cost overruns in road construction – what are their sizes and determinants? Transport Policy, 11(1), 43-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-070X(03)00017-9

Park, Y. I., & Papadopoulou, T. C. (2012). Causes of cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects in Asia: their significance and relationship with project size. Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 2(2), 195-216. https://doi.org/10.1108/20441241211280873

Qian, Z. (2015). Land acquisition compensation in post-reform China: Evolution, structure and challenges in Hangzhou. Land Use Policy, 46, 250-257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.02.013

Shi, G., Zhou, J., & Yu, Q. (2012). Resettlement in China. In Impacts of large dams: A global assessment (pp. 219-241). Berlin: Springer Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23571-9_10

Terrill, M., & Danks, L. (2016). Cost overruns in Australian transportation infrastructure projects. In Proceedings of Australasian Transport Research Forum 2016 (pp. 184-194). Melbourne, Australia.

Wang, S. Q., Dulaimi, M. F., & Aguria, M. Y. (2004). Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries. Construction Management and Economics, 22(3), 237-252. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144619032000124689

Wang, J. Y., & Yuan, H. P. (2011). Major cost-overrun risks in construction projects in China. International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 3(3-4), 227-242. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJPOM.2011.042030

Zeng, S. X., Tam, C. M., Deng, Z. M., & Tam, V. W. (2003). ISO 14000 and the construction industry: survey in China. Journal of Management in Engineering, 19(3), 107-115. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(2003)19:3(107)

Zhang, T., & Ouyang, P. (2018). Is RMB appreciation a nightmare for the Chinese firms? An analysis on firm profitability and exchange rate. International Review of Economics & Finance, 54, 27-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.05.003

Zhao, X., Hwang, B. G., & Yu, G. S. (2013). Identifying the critical risks in underground rail international construction joint ventures: Case study of Singapore. International Journal of Project Management, 31(4), 554-566. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.10.014