Vulnerability and resilience in health crises. Evidence from European countries
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to draw the first lessons from the on-going coronavirus crisis and to identify viable solutions for what should become the goal of any country: transforming their own economies into sensitive and responsive economies regarding public health problems. The originality of our approach is given by its objective as well as the strategy employed for verifying research hypotheses. The objective is twofold: detecting the indicators that may constitute signals for the vulnerability of countries in times of health crisis and highlighting the underlying factors of the resilience capacity. Many indicators have been considered: six indicators concerning Covid-19 pandemic and 27 socio-economic indicators. Three main hypotheses have been formulated and tested using various statistical methods. Our findings provide deep insights for understanding how Covid-19 crisis is correlated to specific economic (urbanization, sectorial employment, health system) and demographic factors (aging, mortality). The study has succeeded in identifying the pattern of a country with greater resilience and better ability to cope with a health crisis. Our results could be useful when forecasting the spread of another pandemic wave, its impact on people’s health and estimating how some markets will be reshaped.
Keyword : health crisis, Covid-19, vulnerability, resilient capacity, Principal Component Analysis, TwoStep Cluster Analysis
How to Cite
Dimian, G. C., Apostu, S. A., Vasilescu, M. D., Aceleanu, M. I., & Jablonsky, J. (2021). Vulnerability and resilience in health crises. Evidence from European countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(4), 783-810. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.14753
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Maffioli, E. M. (2020). How is the world responding to the Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) compared with the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic? The importance of China as a player in the global economy. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 102(5), 924–925. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0135
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O’Sullivan, T., & Bourgoin, M. (2010). Vulnerability in an influenza pandemic: Looking beyond medical risk. Public Health Agency of Canada. https://homelesshub.ca/sites/default/files/Lit%20Review%20-%20Vulnerability%20in%20Pandemic_FINAL.pdf
Oppenheim, B., Gallivan, M., Madhav, N., Brown, N., Serhiyenko, V., Wolfe, N., & Ayscue, P. (2019). Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: Development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index. BMJ Global Health, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001157
Patriarca, P. A., & Cox, N. J. (1997). Influenza pandemic preparedness plan for the United States. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 176(Suppl. 1), S4–S7. https://doi.org/10.1086/514174
Peng, F., Tu, L., Yang, Y., Hu, P., Wang, R., Hu, Q., Cao, F., Jiang, T., Sun, J., Xu, G., & Chang, C. (2020). Management and treatment of COVID-19: The Chinese experience. The Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 36, 915–930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjca.2020.04.010
Presanis, A. M., De Angelis, D., Hagy, A., Reed, C., Riley, S., Cooper, B. S., Finelli, L., Biedrzycki, P., & Lipsitch, M. (2009). The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis. PLoS Medicine, 6(12), e1000207. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207
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Șerban, A. C., Aceleanu, M. I., Dospinescu, A. S., Țîrcă, D. M., & Novo-Corti, I. (2020). The impact of EU immigration on economic growth through the skill composition channel. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(2), 479–503. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.11954
Sirkeci, I., & Yucesahin, M. (2020). Coronavirus and migration: Analysis of human mobility and the spread of Covid-19. Migration Letters, 17(2), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v17i2.935
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Vynnycky, E., & Edmunds, W. J. (2008). Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures. Epidemiology & Infection, 136(2), 166–179. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008369
Yoldascan, E., Kurtaran, B., Koyuncu, M., & Koyuncu, E. (2010). Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: A case study in Turkey. Journal of Medical Systems, 34(2), 139–145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-008-9225-x
Bloom, E., de Wit, V., & Carangal-San Jose, M. J. (2005). Potential economic impact of an avian flu pandemic on Asia (ERD Policy Brief No. 42). Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/2165
Boschma, R. (2015).Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience. Regional Studies, 49(5), 733–751. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2014.959481
Caballero-Anthony, M. (2005). SARS in Asia: Crisis, vulnerabilities, and regional responses. Asian Survey, 45(3), 475–495. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2005.45.3.475
Chohan, U. W. (2020). A post-coronavirus world: 7 Points of discussion for a new political economy (CASS Working Papers on Economics & National Affairs No. EC015UC). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557738
Christopherson, S., Michie, J., & Tyler, P. (2010). Regional resilience: Theoretical and empirical perspectives. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 3–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsq004
Cioaca, S. I, Cristache, S. E., Vuta, M., Marin, E., & Vuta, M. (2020). Assessing the impact of ICT sector on sustainable development in the European Union: An empirical analysis using panel data. Sustainability, 12(2), 592. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020592
Corder, G. W., & Foreman, D. I. (2014). Nonparametric statistics: A step-by-step approach (2nd ed.). Wiley.
Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics. (2020). Roadmap to pandemic resilience. Harvard University. https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20.pdf
European Commission. (2020). The challenge of resilience in a globalised world. Joint Research Centre. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc-resilience-in-a-globalised-world_en.pdf
Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy (IESE Business School Working Paper No. WP-1240-E). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
Ghasemi, A., & Zahediasl, S. (2012). Normality tests for statistical analysis: A guide for non-statisticians. International Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 10(2), 486–489. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3693611/
Gilbert, M., Pullano, G., Pinotti, F., Valdano, E., Poletto, C., Boelle, P. Y., D’Ortenzio, E., Yazdanpanah, Y., Eholie, S. P., Altmann, M., Gutierez, B., Kraemer, M. G., & Colizza, V. (2020). Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of Covid-19: a modelling study. The Lancet, 395(10227), 871–877. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6
Henderson, D. A., Courtney, B., Inglesby, T. V., Toner, E., & Nuzzo, J. B. (2009). Public health and medical responses to the 1957-58 influenza pandemic. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 7(3), 265–273. https://doi.org/10.1089/bsp.2009.0729
Hynes, W., Linkov, I., & Trump, B. (2020). A systemic approach to dealing with Covid-19 and future shocks. New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC). OECD. http://www.oecd.org/naec/projects/resilience/NAEC_Resilience_and_Covid19.pdf
Karlsson, M., Nilsson, T., & Pichler, S. (2014). The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden: An investigation into the consequences of an extraordinary mortality shock. Journal of Health Economics, 36, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2014.03.005
Keogh-Brown, M. R., Smith, R. D., Edmunds, J. W., & Beutels, P. (2010). The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: Estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands. The European Journal of Health Economics, 11, 543–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-009-0210-1
Kieny, M., Evans, D. B., Schmets, G., & Kadandale, S. (2014). Health-system resilence reflections on the Ebola crisis in western Africa. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 92(12), 850. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.14.149278
Kilbourne, E. D. (2004). Influenza pandemics: Can we prepare for the unpredictable? Viral Immunology, 17(3), 350–357. https://doi.org/10.1089/vim.2004.17.350
Lee, V. J, Wong, C. S., & Tambyah, P. A. (2008). Twentieth century pandemics in Singapore. Annals of the Academy of Medicine, 37(6), 470–476.
Liu, Y., Gu, Z., Xia, S., Shi, B., Zhou, X. N., Shi, Y., & Liu, J. (2020). What are the underlying transmission patterns of Covid-19 outbreak? An age-specific social contact characterization. EClinicalMedicine, 22, 100354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100354
Maffioli, E. M. (2020). How is the world responding to the Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) compared with the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic? The importance of China as a player in the global economy. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 102(5), 924–925. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0135
Marinescu, C. (2020). Corona-economy: From Crisis to rebuilding trust. https://en.cosmin-marinescu.ro/corona-economy-crisis-rebuilding-trust/
Mitra, P., Misra, S., & Sharma, P. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic in India: What lies ahead. Indian Journal of Clinical Biochemistry, 35, 257–259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12291-020-00886-6
Modica, M., Reggiani, A., & Nijkamp, P. (2018). Vulnerability, resilience and exposure: Methodological aspects and an empirical applications to shocks (SEEDS Working Paper 13/2018). http://www.sustainability-seeds.org/papers/RePec/srt/wpaper/1318.pdf
Moore, M., Gelfeld, B., Okunogbe, A. T., & Paul, C. (2016). Identifying future disease hot spots: Infectious disease vulnerability index. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1605.html
O’Sullivan, T., & Bourgoin, M. (2010). Vulnerability in an influenza pandemic: Looking beyond medical risk. Public Health Agency of Canada. https://homelesshub.ca/sites/default/files/Lit%20Review%20-%20Vulnerability%20in%20Pandemic_FINAL.pdf
Oppenheim, B., Gallivan, M., Madhav, N., Brown, N., Serhiyenko, V., Wolfe, N., & Ayscue, P. (2019). Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: Development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index. BMJ Global Health, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001157
Patriarca, P. A., & Cox, N. J. (1997). Influenza pandemic preparedness plan for the United States. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 176(Suppl. 1), S4–S7. https://doi.org/10.1086/514174
Peng, F., Tu, L., Yang, Y., Hu, P., Wang, R., Hu, Q., Cao, F., Jiang, T., Sun, J., Xu, G., & Chang, C. (2020). Management and treatment of COVID-19: The Chinese experience. The Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 36, 915–930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjca.2020.04.010
Presanis, A. M., De Angelis, D., Hagy, A., Reed, C., Riley, S., Cooper, B. S., Finelli, L., Biedrzycki, P., & Lipsitch, M. (2009). The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis. PLoS Medicine, 6(12), e1000207. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207
Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., & Keykhah, M. (2003). Vulnerability and risk: some thoughts from a political and policy perspective. Risk Analysis, 23(4), 805–810. https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00357
Șerban, A. C., Aceleanu, M. I., Dospinescu, A. S., Țîrcă, D. M., & Novo-Corti, I. (2020). The impact of EU immigration on economic growth through the skill composition channel. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(2), 479–503. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.11954
Sirkeci, I., & Yucesahin, M. (2020). Coronavirus and migration: Analysis of human mobility and the spread of Covid-19. Migration Letters, 17(2), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v17i2.935
Smith-Bingham, R., & Hariharan, K. (2020). This is the impact of the Coronavirus on business. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/why-is-coronavirus-a-global-business-risk/
UNSD. (2020). How Covid-19 is changing the world: A statistical perspective. Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/documents/covid19-report-ccsa.pdf
Verikios, G., Sullivan, M., Stojanovski, P., Giesecke, J., & Woo, G. (2011). The global economic effects of pandemic influenza (Working Papers G-224). Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-224.htm
Vynnycky, E., & Edmunds, W. J. (2008). Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures. Epidemiology & Infection, 136(2), 166–179. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008369
Yoldascan, E., Kurtaran, B., Koyuncu, M., & Koyuncu, E. (2010). Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: A case study in Turkey. Journal of Medical Systems, 34(2), 139–145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-008-9225-x