Share:


Financial development and economic growth in Poland 1990-2018

    Marinko Škare   Affiliation
    ; Dean Sinković   Affiliation
    ; Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń   Affiliation

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to study finance-economic growth nexus in Poland using a time series approach. We find evidence of the existence of the finance-economic growth link in Poland.  Most empirical studies do not consider the lending structure of the financial sector (share of households’ vs firms in total credits). The obtained results show that when using the share of households and companies in total credits, the long run empirical relationship in VECM is statistically significant and larger. Empirical studies using total private credit share in the GDP or the value/volume of total credits tend to undervalue the impact of financial development on economic growth. In the case of Poland, empirical evidence that supports this hypothesis was found, and therefore policymakers and researchers should take bank lending structure into account. Furthermore, the study shows that financial series may possibly have long memory properties and that researching the financial development-growth nexus could require using fractional integration methods. The reported evidence suggests financial development plays a significant role in both economic growth and credit growth. Due to data limitation, this study focuses on a single country case – Poland with the need for further research (larger sample).

Keyword : financial development, economic growth, transition, Poland

How to Cite
Škare, M., Sinković, D., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2019). Financial development and economic growth in Poland 1990-2018. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 25(2), 103-133. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2019.7925
Published in Issue
Feb 6, 2019
Abstract Views
3344
PDF Downloads
2356
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Afonso, A., & Blanco-Arana, C. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: A study for OECD countries in the context of crisis (REM Working Paper 046-2018). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3224317

Ahlin, Ch., & Pang, J. (2008). Are financial development and corruption control substitutes in promoting growth?. Journal of Development Economics, 86(2), 414-433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.07.002

Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19(6), 716-723. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705

Angjelkovska, T., Hani, E., & Eliskovski, M. (2016). The effect of enterprise and household credit on economic growth and real exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from SEE countries (Working Paper). National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje.

Asteriou, D., & Spanos, K. (2018). The relationship between financial development and economic growth during the recent crisis: Evidence from the EU. Finance Research Letters (in Press). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.05.011

Bahadir, B., & Valev, N. (2017). Catching up or drifting apart: Convergence of household and business credit in Europe. International Review of Economics & Finance, 47, 101-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.10.006

Bangake, Ch., & Eggoh, J. C. (2011). Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis. Economic Systems, 35(2), 176-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.07.001

Bank for International Settlements. (2018, June). BIS statistics. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/statistics/

Baumol, W. J., & Bowen, W. G. (1966). Performing arts: The economic dilemma. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.

Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2002). Industry growth and capital allocation: Does having a market- or bank-based system matter? Industry growth and capital allocation: Does having a market- or bank-based system matter?. Journal of Financial Economics, 64(2), 147-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00074-0

Beck, T., Buyukkarabacak, B., Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2008). Who gets the credit ? and does it matter ? household vs. firm lending across countries (Policy Research Working Paper Series 4661). Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2000). A new database on financial development and structure. World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 597-605. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/14.3.597

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2009). Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time: Data and analysis (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4943). Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 261-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00072-6

Belinga, T., Zhou, J., Doumbe-Doumbe, E., Gahe, Z. S. Y., & Koffi, Y. S. L. (2016). Causality relationship between bank credit and economic growth: Evidence from a time series analysis on a vector error correction model in Cameroon. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2(35), 664-671.

Benhabib, J., & Spiegel, M. (2000). The role of financial development in growth and investment. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(4), 341-60. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026599402490

Berthelemy, J.-C., & Varoudakis, A. (1996). Economic growth, convergence clubs, and the role of financial development. Oxford Economic Papers, 48(2), 300-328. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a028570

Bordo, M. D., & Rousseau, P. L. (2006). Legal-political factors and the historical evolution of the finance-growth. European Review of Economic History, 10(3), 421-444. https://doi.org/10.1017/S136149160600181X

Calderón, C., & Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00079-8

Carby, Y., Craigwell, R., Wright, A., & Wood, A. (2012). Finance and growth causality: A test of the Patrick’s stage-of-development hypothesis. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(21), 129-139.

Christopoulos, D. K., & Tsionas, E. (2004). Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 55-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.03.002

Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M. H., & Raissi, M. (2017). Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth? Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1), 135-150. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00593

Cihák, M., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., & Levine, R. (2012). Benchmarking financial systems around the world (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6175). Washington, D.C: World Bank.
Credit Structure Database [CSD]. (2018, June). Retrieved from https://sites.google.com/site/florianleon/research/data

De Gregorio, J. (1996). Borrowing constraints, human capital accumulation, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(1), 49-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(95)01234-6

Deidda, L., & Fattouh, B. (2002). Non-linearity between finance and growth. Economics Letters, 74(3), 339-345. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00571-7

Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387-411. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(96)00421-X

Demetriades, P., & Law, S. H. (2006). Finance, institutions and economic development. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 11(3), 245-260. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.296

Deuber, G. (Ed.). (2017, June). CEE banking sector report. Banking sector convergence 4.0. Raiffeisen research. Retrieved from https://www.rbinternational.com/eBusiness/services/resources/media/829189266947841370-829188968716049154-1248005137162522516-1-2-EN-8.pdf

Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348

Ductor, L., & Grechyna, D. (2015). Financial development, real sector, and economic growth. International Review of Economics & Finance, 37, 393-405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.01.001

Durusu-Ciftci, D., SerdarIspir, M., & Yetkiner, H. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence, Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 290-306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.08.001

European Bank of Reconstruction and Development. (2017). EBRD Financial Report 2017 (923 Financial Report 2017 (E/1,000)). Retrieved from https://www.ebrd.com/news/publications/financial-report/ebrd-financial-report-2017.html

Favara, G. (2003). An empirical reassessment of the relationship between finance and growth. Washington, DC: IMF.

Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954

Fink, G., Haiss, P. R., & Mantler, H. C. (2005). The finance-growth nexus: Is there a difference between market economies and transition countries?. Retrieved from SSRN https://ssrn.com/abstract=676843 https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.676843

Folwarski, M. (2016). Wpływ kredytów bankowych na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce. Journal of Financial Management and Accounting, 4(3), 5-14.

Galor, O., & Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics. The Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 35-52. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297811

Ganiyu, B. A., Amoo, M. I., Eboreime, Y. A., & Maximillian, C. B. (2017). The impact of private sector credit on economic growth in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 8(2), 81-101.

Gygli, S., Haelg, F., & Sturm, J.-E. (2018). The KOF globalisation index – revisited (KOF Working Papers, No. 439). KOF Swiss Economic Institute.

Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial structure and development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Gómez-Puig, M., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2018). Non financial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries. Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money, 56, 17-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.03.005

Granger, C. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791

Hasan, I., Horvath, R., & Mares, J. (2016). What type of finance matters for growth? Bayesian model averaging evidence (English) (Policy Research working paper, No. WPS 7645). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/859201468186859436/What-type-of-finance-matters-for-growth-Bayesian-model-averaging-evidence

Ibrahim,, M., & Alagidede, P. (2018). Effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(6), 1104-1125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.08.001

Ivanović, V., & Stanišić, N. (2017). Monetary freedom and economic growth in New European Union Member States. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30(1), 453-463. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1305803

Jappelli, T., & Pagano, M. (1994). Saving, growth, and liquidity constraints. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1), 83-109. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118429

Jedidia, K. B., Boujelbènec, B., & Helali, K. (2014). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(5), 883-898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.08.002

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278

Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x

Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198774508.001.0001

Katircioglu, S. T., Kahyalar, N., & Benar, H. (2007). Financial development, trade and growth triangle: The case of India. International Journal of Social Economics, 34(9), 586-598. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290710778615

King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406

Koivu, T. (2002). Do efficient banking sectors accelerate economic growth in transition countries?. Macroeconomics, 0212013. University Library of Munich, Germany.

Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego [KNF]. (2018, June). KNF – Polish Financial Supervision Authority. Statistic data. Retrieved from https://www.knf.gov.pl/en/

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y

Léon, F. (2016). Enterprise credit, household credit and growth: New evidence from 126 countries (CREA Discussion Paper 2016-2017). 1-42. University of Luxembourg.

Léon, F. (2018a). The credit structure database (CREA Discussion Paper Series 2018-07). University of Luxembourg.

Léon, F. (2018b). Convergence of credit structure around the world. Economic Modelling, 68(C), 306-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.021

Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688-726.

Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. In Ph. Aghion, & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 1, Chapter 12, pp. 865-934). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01012-9

Levine, R., Loayza, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9

Ljung, G. M., & Box, G. E. P. (1978). On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 65(2), 297-303. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/65.2.297

Loayza, N., & Ranciere, R. (2005). Financial development, financial fragility and growth (IMF Working Paper, WP/05/170, 1-31/). International Monetary Fund.

Luintel, K. B., & Khan, M. (1999). A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of Development Economics, 60(2), 381-405. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00045-0

Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis (764 p.). Berlin: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1

Maswana, J. C. (2009). A contribution to the empirics of finance-growth Nexus in China: A complex system perspective. Global Economic Review, 38(1), 29-47. https://doi.org/10.1080/12265080802692662

McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.

Neusser, N., & Kugler, M. (1998) Manufacturing growth and financial development: Evidence from OECD countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 636-646. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557726

Odedokun, M. (1996). Financial policy and efficiency of resource utilization in developing countries. Growth and Change, 27(3), 269-297. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2257.1996.tb00906.x

Odhiambo, N. M. (2005). Financial development and economic growth in Tanzania: a dynamic causality tests. African Finance Journal, 7(1), 1-17.

Ono, S. (2017). Financial development and economic growth nexus in Russia. Russian Journal of Economics, 3(3), 321-332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.006

Penn World Table 9.1. (2018, June). The Database. https://doi.org/10.15141/S5J01T

Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335

Ram, R. (1999). Financial development and economic growth: Additional evidence. Journal of Development Studies, 35(4), 164-174. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389908422585

Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2004a). Does one size fit all? A reexamination of the finance and growth relationship. Journal of Development Economics, 74(2), 429-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.06.006

Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2004b). Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development. Economic Inquiry, 42(1), 127-140. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/cbh049

Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (2002). Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 777-793. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00022-0

Ruiz, J. L. (2018). Financial development, institutional investors, and economic growth. International Review of Economics & Finance, 54, 218-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.08.009

Samargandia, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic? Evidence from a sample of middle-income countries. World Development, 68, 66-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.010

Sassi, S., & Gasmi, A. (2014). The effect of enterprise and household credit on economic growth: New evidence from European union countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39(A), 226-231.

Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461-464. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344136

Shan, J., & Jianhong, Q. (2006). Does financial development lead’s economic growth? The case of China. Annals of Economics and Finance, 7(1), 197-216.

Topcu, M., & Çoban, S. (2017). Financial development and firm growth in Turkish manufacturing industry: evidence from heterogeneous panel based non-causality test. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30(1), 1758-1769. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1383179

Wiiw Annual Database. (2018, June). Retrieved from https://data.wiiw.ac.at/annual-database.html

World Bank. (2018a, June). Financial development and structure dataset. Retrieved from http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/gfdr/data/financial-structure-database

World Bank. (2018b, June). Global financial development database (GFDD). Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/gfdr/data/global-financial-development-database

World Bank. (2018c, June). World development indicators. Retrieved from http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/

Yülek, M. A. (2017). Why governments may opt for financial repression policies: selective credits and endogenous growth. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30(1), 1390-1405. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1355252

Zang, H., & Kim, Y. C. (2007). Does financial development precede growth? Robinson and Lucas might be right. Applied Economics Letters, 14(1), 15-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500425469